Weekly Market Insight

We’re excited to share that Poljak Group Wealth Management has recently been named to the Forbes 2026 Best-In-State Wealth Management Teams list! This honor acknowledges the depth of experience and capabilities of our team in understanding and providing effective advisory services.

We couldn’t be more proud of our partners at Poljak Group for their commitment to serving our clients’ diverse needs and goals—and for going above and beyond to help preserve and grow their businesses: Jason Adams, M.B.A., Vice President and Client Relationship Manager; Vice Presidents and Wealth and Portfolio Specialists Scott Salvail, Joseph Fell, M.B.A., and John Simpson; and, Vice President and Client Administrative Manager David Williams.

Our heartfelt thanks to the team for their great work and to our clients for the opportunity to serve you! For more information about our team and the Forbes list, please visit our website at PoljakGroup.com.

Today's Market Recap

Dow +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.10%, Nasdaq +0.14%, Russell 2000 (0.00%)

• US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, a bit off best levels. Equal-weight S&P (RSP) trailed cap-weighted index with some notable outperformers in big tech and among the money-center banks. Most-shorted names, high-beta stocks fared well. Other areas of strength included transports, insurers, credit cards, multis, hotels, apparel/apparel retail, cruise lines, and media. Laggards included software, energy, food, grocers/staples retailers, HPCs, managed care, commodity chemicals, paper/packaging, building products, homebuilders, and housing-related retail. Treasuries were mixed with curve flattening; yields were up 2-3 bp at short end of curve. Dollar index was up 0.3%, though came off best levels. Gold finished down 2.8%, back below $5K. Silver was down 5.7%. Bitcoin futures were down 1.4%. WTI crude settled down 0.9%, reversing earlier gains amid more optimistic US-Iran headlines. (FactSet)
• Nothing really new from a narrative standpoint but another day with a lot more going on beneath the surface. Mag 7 mixed and little changed overall. Software sold off after brief reprieve late last week. Financials bounced after coming under pressure last week despite positive conference commentary and favorable macro data. Curve continued to flatten but with a bearish tilt. Dollar was stronger while commodities, particularly precious metals, were pressured. Corporate updates largely underwhelmed though there was a pickup in M&A and activist developments. Long weekend headlines revolved around AI disruption and white-collar job worries, mixed geopolitical headlines, fresh corporate price hikes, tariff relief and bigger tax refunds. Quieter macro week from a data perspective, though US-Iran talks continuing and SCOTUS could finally make a ruling on Trump's tariffs on Friday. (FactSet)
• ADP weekly private payrolls showed average of 10.25K growth over past four weeks, a third-straight increase. February Empire State manufacturing missed as new orders ticked higher and employment back in positive territory, but input and selling prices both jumped. February NAHB housing market index posted surprise decline, lowest since September, with report citing affordability challenges as key headwind. In Fedspeak, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee said he could see several rate cuts this year, but would want evidence inflation is heading back to target before further easing. Governor Barr noted Fed should take time and look at data before changing policy again. SF's Daly said policymakers need to be open to signs AI is impacting the economy. (FactSet)

Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, February 9th - Friday, February 13th)

Dow (1.23%), S&P 500 (1.39%), Nasdaq (2.10%), Russell 2000 (0.89%)

• US equities were lower last week with the S&P 500 down for a second-straight week, Nasdaq Composite off for a fifth-straight week, and the small-cap Russell 2000 down for the third week in the past four. However, the equal-weight S&P 500outpaced the cap-weighted index by nearly 170 bp for the week, and set a fresh record high mid-week. Big tech was mostly lower, though semis and software were modestly higher. Other underperformers included money-center banks, investment banks, payments, credit cards, airlines, cruise lines, financial data, steel, trucking, China tech, and entertainment. Outperformers included homebuilders, auto suppliers, telecom, chemicals, machinery, rails, energy, hotels, grocers, utilities, real estate, and telecom. (FactSet)
• Treasuries rallied with the curve flattening, with the policy-sensitive 2Y yield down 9 bp to 3.41%, the lowest level since late November, while the 10Y fell around 15 bp to 4.05%, the lowest since early December. The dollar index was down 0.8%, with yen strength (post-election rally) the big FX story. Gold was up 1.3%, ending back above $5K/oz. Silver was up 1.4%. Bitcoin futures were down 2%. WTI crude settled down 1%. (FactSet)

S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)

• Outperformers: Utilities +7.13%, Real Estate +3.87%, Materials +3.66%, Energy +1.68%, Consumer Staples +1.38%, Industrials +0.58%, Healthcare (0.06%)
• Underperformers: Financials (4.83%), Communication Services (3.53%), Consumer Disc. (2.10%), Tech (1.98%)

What happened last week?

• The big theme last week was dispersion and the broadening trade. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) ended the week at a fresh record, signaling a further rotation into cyclicals and away from mega-cap tech. The move continues to be driven by the "run-it-hot" tailwind, while some cautious AI takeaways (capex ROI scrutiny, AI disruption, and component/resource constraints) hit the Mag 7. (FactSet)
• However, there was some divergence within the tech space. AI enablers and semis held up relatively well, driven by updates around healthy AI infrastructure demand trends. Memory names surged again, acting as a beneficiary of AI demand, though remain a source of margin pressure for the broader hardware ecosystem. (FactSet)
• Software saw a fairly tepid bounce from its recent plunge and elevated volatility amid ongoing AI displacement fears. Last week also saw spillover of the AI displacement narrative into other industries, including asset managers, wealth management, trucking, logistics, and commercial real estate. Comments from Microsoft AI Head Mustafa Suleyman were also under scrutiny, stating he expects most white-collar worker tasks will be fully automated by AI within the next 12-18 months. However, several analysts pushed back against the software selloff. Goldman Sachs noted software positioning is at record low levels, making up less than 3% of total US net exposures. HSBC argued incumbent enterprise vendors are insulated by proprietary data and an inherent need for system exactness, allowing them to use AI as a complementary tool for growth rather than being displaced by it. (FactSet)
• Data last week included January nonfarm payrolls, which posted a healthy beat at 130K against consensus for 70K, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. January core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, in line with consensus, helping alleviate some sticky inflation fears. December retail sales missed while control group sales were down 0.1% m/m off a downwardly revised November print. Markets are now pricing 59 bp of cuts through year-end, the most since mid-December. The steeper rate cutting path forecast also comes despite hawkish Fedspeak last week from voters Hammack (Cleveland) and Logan (Dallas). (FactSet)
• Geopolitical headlines remained busy, but the market mostly ignored last week's updates. Trump threatened to send a second aircraft carrier to Iran if talks fail, while Israel's Netanyahu expressed skepticism on a potential nuclear deal (Axios). Reports indicated Russia is poised to capture key regions of Ukraine, potentially gaining leverage in future negotiations, while Ukraine's Zelensky expressed frustration around the Trump administration's pressure to make concessions to end the war by early summer (NY Times). Trade headlines were also fairly quiet last week, except for a House vote to overturn Trump's tariffs on Canada with support from several Republicans (Politico). However, Trump is reportedly planning to scale back steel and aluminum tariffs as he faces affordability concerns ahead of the November midterms (FT). (FactSet)

This week

• In a holiday-shortened week, this week's data include Tuesday's February Empire State index and January builder confidence; Wednesday's December Durable Goods, December housing starts and building permits; Thursday's initial claims, Philadelphia Fed Index, and January pending home sales index; and Friday's first look at Q4 GDP, December Core PCE, February flash PMIs, final Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and December new home sales. The minutes to the January FOMC meeting are also set for Wednesday. The Supreme Court said it would release opinions on Feb. 20th, which could be the first opportunity to announce an IEEPA decision. (FactSet)

Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)

• 2/17: Retail sales
• 2/18: Durable goods orders, housing starts, industrial production
• 2/19: International trade in goods and services
• 2/20: GDP, Personal Income and Outlays, new

It is our pleasure to serve you! We created Market Insight to keep you informed and up to date on our current industry focus, as well as areas of concern and interest to our firm and clients. Our team will continue to closely monitor market and economic news and trends; we are actively tracking ongoing developments in the Middle East and other parts of the world and will share with you significant economic and market impacts.

Market Insightis one of the many ways you and your family can benefit from your relationship with Poljak Group—in addition to access to world-class resources, including leading investment research, expertise and technologies offered through our strategic partnership with Raymond James and Steward Partners. Please stay tuned each week for new editions of Poljak Group’s Market Insight newsletter and review past issues on our website at www.PoljakGroup.com. For questions or concerns or to schedule a meeting for specific investment advice, please call us at (318) 674-4100.

Our clients are our top priority.? We look forward to hearing from you!