Weekly Market Insight

You may know that our dad, Tommy Poljak, sadly passed away recently. Tommy was beloved by so many family and friends and was an exemplar of kindness and generosity. He was instrumental in helping us found our family consulting business and worked alongside us serving our clients. It was Tommy who taught us what it is to be principled and ethical, and to treasure family and relationships above all else. It is these things and his uncompromising character, tenacity and drive that we strive to emulate every day—both personally and professionally. We are grateful to our colleagues and friends who have reached out with kind words about their association with Tommy through the years; you can read more about the epic journey that was his life here: Tomislav _Tommy_ Poljak Obituary (1939 - 2025) - WSJ January 24, 2026

To Tommy, we dedicate this issue of Market Insight and our unending gratitude for his love and guidance—and showing us the meaning and purpose of a life well lived.

Today's Market Recap

Dow +1.05%, S&P 500 +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.56%, Russell 2000 +1.02%

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, near best levels. Comes after Friday's lower finish that capped off a mostly down week for stocks. Big tech mixed. Broader AI trade better, while semis outpacing software by nearly 300 bp, extending recent record chip outperformance. Outperformers include travel and leisure, payments rails, discounters, department stores, parcels and logistics, trucking, machinery, rare earths, and industrial metals. Laggards include energy, online brokers, crypto, entertainment, protein, rails, life sciences, China tech, A&D, grocers, MCOs, and retail-investor favorites. Treasuries weaker with curve bear flattening; yields up 3 bp on short-end. Dollar index up 0.7%. Gold finished down 2% in choppy trading. Silver ended down 1.9% in another volatile session. Bitcoin futures down 6.5%, back below $80K. WTI crude settled down 4.7% amid headlines of US-Iran talks. (FactSet)
AI sentiment solidified today after some cautious weekend headlines. Narrative of resilient macro backdrop helped today by ISM manufacturing moving into expansionary territory and hitting its highest level since mid-2022 (though Fed now only seen bringing ~47 bp in cuts this year after pricing in 52 bp on Friday). Precious-metals trading remained volatile with gold and silver jumpy today, though fits with thoughts recent weakness has been more about a positioning shakeout than a narrative change. Other areas of focus include oil selloff and dampened geopolitical fears (Trump comments that Iran is having serious discussions about its nuclear program), announcement of US-India trade deal, discussion around Warsh impact as next Fed chair, positive commentary on Q4 earnings season, slowing retail flows, extended sentiment, potential CTA and vol control fund unwinds in near-term flat/down market. (FactSet)

Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, January 26th - Friday, January 30th)

Dow (0.42%), S&P +0.34%, Nasdaq (0.17%), Russell 2000 (2.08%)

US equities were mostly lower last week. The S&P ticked above the 7,000 level intraday Wednesday before pulling back; the small-cap Russell gave up some more of its solid January gains. Big tech was stronger overall amid a burst of Mag 7 earnings reporters, helping the cap-weighted S&P outpace the equal-weight RSP. (FactSet)
Last week's outperforming groups included semis, networking/communications, banks, insurance, energy, telecom, machinery, cruise lines, and utilities. Laggards included managed care (lower 2027 Medicare Advantage rates), software, precious-metals miners, MedTech, chemicals, paper/packaging, building products, private equity, homebuilders, housing-related retail, restaurants, casinos, and quantum computing. Most-shorted names, small-caps, and retail-investor favorites were largely down last week. (FactSet)
Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening; the 30Y yield rose 5 bp. The market also absorbed $183B in new issuance; last week's 2Y auction was well received though 5Y and 7Y sales both tailed. The dollar was down on the major crosses; DXY (0.5%) was lower for its second consecutive week and probed four-year lows. WTI crude was up 7.3%, ending at a four-month high, logging its sixth consecutive weekly gain, and notching its best weekly return since October amid rising concerns about Trump action against Iran. (FactSet)
It was an extremely volatile week for metals. Gold climbed further into record territory before dropping sharply on Friday; settling down 4.7% for the week. Silver spent much of the week above $100/oz but saw a huge Friday drawdown, logging its worst single session since the Hunt Brothers attempted to corner the silver market in 1980; for the week, silver was down 22.5%. Copper did not escape the trend, rising on speculative trends and helped by some China real-estate dynamics before breaking back down; however, it ended off only 0.5% for the week. (FactSet)

S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)

Outperformers: Communication Services +4.15%, Energy +3.88%, Utilities +1.66%, Consumer Staples +0.81%, Industrials +0.73%, Financials +0.69%, Real Estate +0.69%.
Underperformers: Healthcare (1.73%), Consumer Disc. (1.42%), Materials (1.21%), Tech (0.36%)

What happened last week?

There was a lot of anticipation last week for a chunk of Mag 7 earnings. With those reports came reflection on the state of AI trends. There was a lot of discussion about elevated capex plans and brought accompanying scrutiny, while reports from some companies involved discussion of AI infrastructure buildouts. And the software space continued to feel the pressure from AI competition concerns. (FactSet)
President Trump finally named his pick to succeed Jay Powell as Fed chair, tapping former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. Warsh was seen as a more hawkish member during his 2006-11 tenure though his recent comments have leaned more dovish. There is also a lot of attention on his advocacy for a smaller Fed balance sheet and his call for "regime change" at the Fed. While he is seen as a confirmable nominee, the process may be complicated by GOP Sen. Tillis on the banking committee, who has pledged to block any Fed nominations until the DoJ's investigation into Powell is concluded. (FactSet)
Last week's FOMC meeting was something of a non-event. The Fed held rates steady, as widely anticipated, and there was little in the statement or Powell's press conference to shift expectations that policymakers may be patient in considering additional cuts this year. (FactSet)
On the economic front, November durable-goods orders were up sharply on transportation, but core capital-goods orders were also ahead of forecasts. December PPI came in notably hotter than consensus on both headline and core measures, though there was some analyst note that the composition suggests limited pass-through to the more Fed-relevant core PCE. January consumer confidence came in at the lowest headline level since 2014, with the labor-market differential (those seeing jobs as plentiful vs hard to get) narrowed to its lowest level in five years. (FactSet)
While last week's consumer confidence report showed rising concern about the labor market, this has not yet been reflected in the jobless claims data. The latest weekly initial claims remained muted while continuing claims printed below consensus. That said, there was a burst of higher-profile layoff announcements last week from the likes of AMZN, UPS, MA, DOW, and PINS. (FactSet)

This week

This week sees the start of peak Q4 earnings, with 127 S&P 500 constituents reporting. Included will be two of the Mag 7 (GOOGL and AMZN) as well as LLY, AMD, AABBV, MRK, TMUS, PEP, DIS, AMGN, UBER, QCOM, PFE, and BMY. (FactSet)
It will be a busy week of economic data with this Friday's January nonfarm payrolls as the centerpiece (preceded by December JOLTS on Tuesday and ADP private payrolls Wednesday). Other notable releases include ISM manufacturing (Monday); ISM services (Wednesday); jobless claims and preliminary Q4 productivity/unit labor costs (Thursday); and preliminary February UMich consumer sentiment/inflation expectations (Friday). (FactSet)
The Fedspeak schedule is fairly light, with speakers including Bostic (Monday/Thursday), Bowman (Tuesday), Cook (Wednesday), and Jefferson (Friday). The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) will be released at 2pm ET on Monday. (FactSet)
The Treasury Department will release its Q1 financing estimates at 3pm ET on Monday, followed by the quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET on Wednesday. (FactSet)

Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)

02/02: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS
02/04: S&P Global Services PMI
02/05: International trade in goods and services
02/06: Employment Situation

It is our pleasure to serve you! We created Market Insight to keep you informed and up to date on our current industry focus, as well as areas of concern and interest to our firm and clients. Our team will continue to closely monitor market and economic news and trends; we are actively tracking ongoing developments in the Middle East and other parts of the world and will share with you significant economic and market impacts.

Market Insightis one of the many ways you and your family can benefit from your relationship with Poljak Group—in addition to access to world-class resources, including leading investment research, expertise and technologies offered through our strategic partnership with Raymond James and Steward Partners. Please stay tuned each week for new editions of Poljak Group’s Market Insight newsletter and review past issues on our website at www.PoljakGroup.com. For questions or concerns or to schedule a meeting for specific investment advice, please call us at (318) 674-4100.

Our clients are our top priority.? We look forward to hearing from you!

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

For index definitions click here

Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to the risks that: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the Sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.

In the event that you no longer wish to receive these commercial emails please reply to this email and in the body of the email request that we remove you from our email list.

The information contained within this commercial email has been obtained from Sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the foregoing material is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation.

The opinions of Brian S. Wesbury are independent from and not necessarily those of Steward Partners. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

AdTrax 5717151.144 Exp 02/27